Before you commit
Most technical diligence tells you whether the technology functions. Most commercial diligence tells you whether a market exists. Neither tells you whether this team can move this technology to a buyer who is compelled to act, inside the capital and the timeframe available.
The gap
Where climate positions underperform, and why it is rarely the science.
That gap is where climate positions underperform. Not because the science failed. Because the clock did.
What we assess
Four assessments, reconciled against each other rather than answered separately.
Whether the technology works at the stage claimed rather than the stage hoped for. Scale-up discontinuities between bench, pilot and first commercial unit. Dependencies on inputs, permits, interconnection or feedstock outside the company’s control. Where the engineering risk actually sits, as opposed to where the deck says it sits.
Not addressable market. A named buyer, a named budget line, a named trigger. What forces that buyer to act, and when. Procurement cycles, offtake structure, regulatory timing, and whether the cost case survives without a subsidy that may not be there in three years.
Whether the founding team can do what the deck describes. What they have executed before, where the gaps are, whether the governance structure lets a board help early enough to matter, and whether the team tells you the truth when the number slips.
What backing this actually commits you to. Total capital to breakeven, dilution to exit, and whether the runway reaches a milestone a later investor treats as de-risking — set against the date the buyer becomes compelled. What the second unit costs, with the decline attributed to named causes rather than an assumed rate.
The process
Three weeks from the close of definition.
We agree the questions the assessment has to answer, what evidence exists and what does not, who we need access to, and what finding would change your decision. You keep the definition document whether or not the engagement continues.
Principal plus the bench specialist the technology requires. Document review, technical interrogation, buyer-side interviews, cost-case reconstruction, regulatory and procurement timing.
Founder and leadership interviews, reference work, governance review. The capital plan rebuilt from the bottom up: capital to breakeven, dilution to exit, runway against the next fundable milestone, and unit economics at scale.
The four assessments are reconciled against each other rather than delivered as four separate opinions, including the dated comparison of when the buyer becomes compelled against when the cash runs out. Where they disagree, the disagreement is the finding.
Ninety minutes with your investment team. We defend the position and take the argument.
What you get
The document, and what it will and will not claim.
A written assessment carrying an explicit position on each of the four assessments, the evidence behind each position, the confidence level attached to it, and a statement of what would change our view. Delivered in three weeks from the close of definition. Fixed fee agreed before Stage 1 begins.
We will tell you when a deal is a timing bet. Timing bets can be excellent positions. They should be sized as timing bets.
Technology readiness is not market readiness, and the distance between them is measured in capital cycles, not product cycles.
Every section of that document, scored against a composite company, is in the sample deliverable — ten pages, available on request.
What we decline
Two situations, consistently.
There are two situations we consistently pass on, for reasons that are about duration rather than ethics.
Stay in touch
We will only send what you asked for.
